Summer movie season ending in disaster
Two new releases will vie with 'Tropic Thunder' for No. 1 at the box office.
Hollywood's 18-week summer season ends this weekend with two new flicks in the fight for No. 1 at the box office: "Disaster Movie" and a movie that critics -- and even the director -- call a disaster of a movie, the sci-fi thriller "Babylon A.D."
Both are tracking to open at $10 million to $13 million through Labor Day. They will tussle for the top spot with DreamWorks/Paramount's action comedy "Tropic Thunder," which could win a third straight weekend thanks to the soft competition.
With folks surely primed for mindless laughter after a week of Democratic speeches and Republican responses, Projector gives a slight edge to "Tropic Thunder" over "Disaster Movie," from the spoof-meisters who brought you "Meet the Spartans" -- whether you wanted it or not.
The R-rated "Tropic Thunder," starring Jack Black, Ben Stiller and Robert Downey Jr., is far from a blockbuster, considering its production cost of more than $90 million. But it has hung tough in the market and looks headed for $12 million to $15 million over four days with a modest third-weekend drop, and ultimately more than $100 million in domestic grosses.
Consumer tracking shows "Disaster Movie" and "Babylon A.D.," both rated PG-13, drawing young moviegoers.
"Disaster Movie," produced for $20 million by Grosvenor Park and distributed domestically by Lionsgate Films, features an ensemble including Vanessa Minnillo, G. Thang and Carmen Electra surviving a series of natural disasters and, of course, a string of gags parodying "Juno," "Enchanted" and other recent movies.
Writer-director-producers Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer have built a bankable brand, not unlike Jim Abrahams and the brothers David and Jerry Zucker, the "Airplane!" and "The Naked Gun" guys, did in the 1980s. Since helping to write the first "Scary Movie," Friedberg and Seltzer went on to make "Date Movie," "Epic Movie" and "Meet the Spartans," which opened to weekend totals of $19.1 million, $18.6 million and $18.5 million, respectively.
The March release "Superhero Movie," from different filmmakers, launched to only $9.5 million, and "Disaster Movie" hasn't tracked quite as well as "Spartans," raising the specter that audiences could finally be suffering from SGFS, or spoof genre fatigue syndrome.
Yet even with a dip from the Friedberg-Seltzer norm, "Disaster Movie" could be No. 1.
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