Mideast weighs the Clinton prospect

Speculation about Clinton's views may be beside the point, some experts contend. "It really doesn't matter," said Aaron David Miller, who has advised six secretaries of State on Middle East issues and is now a public policy specialist at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "She's no longer her own actor in this. . . . She'll need to be empowered by the president."

Even so, Israelis say they're more comfortable about Obama with Clinton on the team, an added reassurance after the appointment of Rahm Emanuel, a Jew whose father once had links to a militant Zionist organization, as White House chief of staff.

"Israel would get a fair hearing with her," said Israeli historian Michael Oren, as Obama plots diplomatic overtures to Iran and decides how hard to press for concessions to the Palestinians.

After a year of fruitless talks brokered by the Bush administration, Israelis are in no mood to be pushed into a deal with the Palestinian Authority while its leadership is in disarray and Hamas militants rule Gaza. The front-runner in Israel's Feb. 10 election, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the right-wing Likud Party, opposes continuing the peace talks.

Realism expected

Although Obama has promised Palestinian leaders that he will strive for an accord, the question is how much effort he or Clinton would invest.

"There's not likely to be coercion in the [U.S.-Israeli] relationship," said Eran Lerman, who directs the Israel office of the American Jewish Committee. "I think Hillary would be fairly realistic as to what can be done and what cannot be done given the political climate on our side and on the Palestinian side."

Ali Jarbawi, an independent West Bank political scientist who advises the Palestinian leadership, shares that assessment.

"We need a new American vision, an evenhandedness in dealing with the conflict," he said. "The Arab world is practically begging for an end to the conflict and Israel is saying no. Is Clinton prepared to push Israel? I'm skeptical."

Some analysts predict the Obama administration will try instead to broker an Israeli-Syrian accord, aimed at drawing Syria away from Iran's influence and diminishing Iran as a threat to the Jewish state.

Watching Rice

Edward S. Walker Jr., who was assistant secretary of State for Near East affairs during the Clinton administration, said even if Obama gives Hillary Clinton wide leeway over Israeli-Arab issues, "she may not want to put all of her eggs in that basket. Most administrations don't like to follow too closely in the exact footsteps of their predecessors."

"Hillary Clinton has watched Condi Rice make 23 visits to the region over the past two years and achieve nothing," said Oren, the Israeli historian. "She is going to think many times before investing personally in a process where a very good chance of success is not guaranteed."

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Boudreaux, Fleishman and Richter are Times staff writers.

Richard Boudreaux

reporting from jerusalem

Jeffrey Fleishman

reporting from cairo

Paul Richter

reporting from washington

boudreaux@latimes.com

jeffrey.fleishman@latimes.com

paul.richter@latimes.com

Special correspondent Maher Abukhater in Ramallah, West Bank, contributed to this report.