U.S.-Iraqi accord shows Muqtada Sadr's diminished clout

Ahmed Masoudi's televised tantrum, and days of Sadr loyalists shouting, pounding desks, and pleading for parliament to reject the pact, made no difference. Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers approved the Status of Forces Agreement, which sets a Dec. 31, 2011, deadline for American forces to leave Iraq. Sadr says the deal has loopholes that could extend the U.S. presence.

The vote last week was a sign of how Sadr's clout has diminished since 2005, when his parliament bloc provided the boost needed to propel fellow Shiite Nouri Maliki into the prime minister's role. Now that Sadr's ultimate goal, a U.S. exit, is in sight, questions arise about his political future.

Things have changed from the days when Sadr's support was crucial to keeping Maliki in power, or when his supporters could use their street credibility to turn the public against the prime minister. Sadr has lost some political and military run-ins with Maliki. Critics and observers say he has made some missteps.

In April 2007, Sadr pulled his six supporters from the Cabinet to pressure Maliki to hold the U.S. to a withdrawal date. Maliki rejected the ultimatum and replaced them, virtually denying the Sadr bloc a voice in his government.

A year later, Maliki's offensive against Shiite militia strongholds in Basra and the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad ended with Sadr calling a cease-fire and his fighters giving up the streets they had controlled. Even though Maliki needed U.S. air power and ground support, by all accounts he emerged with a stronger sense of himself as a leader, willing to challenge the Americans, Sadr or anyone else who got in his way.

"Negotiations took a twist after Basra," said a U.S. official. "I mean, this is an Iraq that was really standing up and showing us and everyone they can do something."

A second U.S. official said that passage of the Status of Forces Agreement leaves Sadr and his 30-member parliamentary bloc in an awkward spot. Acknowledging that the pullout dates are firm "would probably not be a political decision Sadr would be interested in taking," said the official, because it would leave him without an issue to rally his supporters.