FROM LAS VEGAS — Oscar De La Hoya is going to defeat Manny Pacquiao, and probably by a knockout. Make it the ninth round.
As I've thought about this fight since I visited both fighters a month ago at their Southern California training camps, several factors continue pointing to the outcome being a "real" version of what fans saw at Staples Center this week, when De La Hoya emulated his new statue's pose by raising his arms in victory.
First, he's too big. Second, Pacquiao took this fight mostly for money. Third, De La Hoya may be 35, with some strong voices talking about his declining skills, but he's not impossibly removed from the fighter he was six years ago, when he knocked out a steroid-inflated Fernando Vargas.
Let's look at this: De La Hoya (39-5, 30 knockouts) is taking on the world's best pound-for-pound fighter for the second time in two years. He lost to Floyd Mayweather Jr., a true welterweight, by split decision last year when a judge failed to award him a 10-9 round as two others did against Mayweather. It was a close fight.
Now, De La Hoya has hand-picked current lightweight champion Pacquiao, whose struggles to make the super-featherweight limit of 130 pounds led him to move up and win a lightweight (135 pounds) world title this summer. He was impressive in knocking out David Diaz, but Pacquiao weighed in Friday at only 142 pounds. The size disadvantage is too daunting for "Pac-Man" to overcome.
De La Hoya, remember, has fought as high as 160 pounds as recently as two years ago, and he hasn't fought at 147 since 2001 -- when he buried Arturo Gatti. De La Hoya might walk into the ring five to 10 pounds heavier than Pacquiao.
His reach is five inches longer, De La Hoya stands four inches taller and he has the ring experiences that resulted in 10 world titles.
An official with Pacquiao's promotion company, Top Rank, also tells the story of how Pacquiao initially balked at agreeing to the fight. He wanted a higher percentage of the revenue. Ultimately, Pacquiao was advised to accept the De La Hoya bout because it assured him money (a guaranteed $11 million) that he couldn't make in accepting three other fights.
And almost universally, boxing experts believe Pacquiao has nothing to lose by losing. He has an easy excuse, will be bathed in riches afterward and can re-bolster his stock as the world's top pound-for-pound fighter against likely future foes Ricky Hatton, Juan Manuel Marquez and others.
