NAIROBI, KENYA — Two years after being routed from Somalia's capital, an anti-Western Islamic movement is poised for a comeback in the besieged Horn of Africa nation.
Although the movement is divided by competing ideologies and goals, it has nonetheless made many gains recently through a combination of brutal force and political dialogue.
The militant wing, Shabab, which claims affiliation to Al Qaeda, now controls 90% of southern Somalia, including parts of the capital, Mogadishu. The moderate faction signed a peace deal with Somalia's transitional government that could hand it half the seats in parliament.
Islamists who fled two years ago after their defeat by Ethiopian troops who had crossed the border to prop up Somalia's government are reemerging to assert their authority in several cities, often imposing strict Islamic laws against dancing, drinking or conducting business during prayer time. They're even starting to flex their muscles again to halt piracy offshore.
"They're back with a bang," said Rashid Abdi, Somalia analyst at International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution think tank. "They actually control more territory now than they did in 2006."
With Ethiopia's recent threat to withdraw its troops, Islamist militias are positioned at Mogadishu's outskirts. They vow to take over if, as many predict, the U.N.-recognized transitional government collapses once the Ethiopians leave.
"We are preparing to handle our freedom, and once the enemy leaves the country we will quickly stabilize the country," Islamist spokesman Abdirahim Isse Adow said.
The only question is whether the Islamist movement can resolve the internal power struggles and conflicting visions that helped lead to its downfall two years ago.
Far from the Islamic Courts Union that defeated U.S.-backed warlords in early 2006, today's Islamists have splintered into three groups.
Shabab remains the muscle of the movement. The militia always attracted hard-liners, but two years of fighting against Ethiopians and enduring U.S. missile strikes have further radicalized members.
As they have recaptured southern cities, some Shabab leaders have imposed Taliban-style rules, killed humanitarian workers and terrorized women. In Kismayo, a 13-year-old rape victim was stoned to death after being accused of adultery.
