The other main faction, led by former Islamic Courts chairman Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, is working to reconcile with the transitional government in a power-sharing agreement. Ahmed is viewed as a possible new prime minister, but Shabab commanders accused him of betrayal.
A third Islamist faction falls somewhere between the other two. Rivalries are so bitter that fighting among groups recently broke out south of Mogadishu.
"They are embracing radically different policies," said Ken Menkhaus, a Somalia expert and professor at North Carolina's Davidson College. "The next fight in Somalia is going to be between the Islamists."
It's a familiar struggle. When the Islamic Courts Union took control of Mogadishu in June 2006, factions pushed competing ideologies. Some closed cinemas and conducted public executions; others wanted a more modern interpretation of Islam. Differing views on how to deal with Ethiopian troops led the Islamists to fragment after a brief war in December 2006.
Lingering divisions may still prevent Islamists from regaining control, experts say. Government officials acknowledge that they are pursuing a "divide and conquer" strategy to lure moderates into the parliament while isolating hard-liners.
"The splintering helps because now the extremists are all together," said Awad Ahmed Ashareh, a member of Somalia's parliament.
But Islamist leaders know the key to their return to power may rest with reunification.
"We are working on mediation," said Ibrahim Hassan Adou, a former foreign affairs minister under the Islamic Courts. "These groups were once one."
Abdi, the analyst, said Shabab would have the upper hand in any initial power struggle. "They have the military clout and the power has gone to their heads," Abdi said. "They think they can do anything."
But he predicted that public resistance to Shabab's harsh policies would make it realize that it needs its former allies to help run the country. "The burden of governing is different from the burden of fighting," he said. "They will have to reach out and mellow their ways."
Meanwhile, beleaguered Somalis are bracing for another change in power.
As in 2006, many expressed mixed feelings. The Islamists' six-month reign earned praise for restoring security. But the price was personal freedom and rights. There were bans against Western haircuts, movies and chewing khat, a leafy stimulant.
After Shabab seized the port city of Kismayo this year, crime and looting ceased.
"We had no peace, but now the situation is calm," said one Kismayo resident. "The problem is they impose rules that are too strict. . . . Many people, including me, hate them.
"But I'm going to see where the game ends."
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edmund.sanders@ latimes.com
Special correspondent Lutfi Sheriff Mohammed in Mogadishu contributed to this report.
