There is a saying in politics that whoever controls the turnout wins the election. That's as true in Hollywood labor politics as it is in presidential elections.
A key vote later this month by members of the Screen Actors Guild could push the entertainment industry toward another bitter strike, almost a year after screenwriters ended a 100-day walkout. The union's negotiators say they need the strike authorization vote to give them leverage in contract talks with the studios that have stalled for months.
The question is, why would SAG hold such an important vote over the December holidays, when much of Hollywood shuts down? Some union critics think the timing is suspicious, and claim that SAG leaders would like nothing more than to see a low turnout, particularly among working actors who are the most likely to oppose a walkout.
But people close to the union's negotiating committee say the vote at month's end is necessary to give the guild enough time to conduct its "educational campaign" to build support for its cause at a time when the union remains sharply divided over the best course of action.
That's in marked contrast to the Writers Guild of America, which was firmly united when members overwhelmingly approved a strike authorization last year.
SAG, on the other hand, has been beset by feuds between moderates and hard-liners over negotiating strategy, contract demands and strained relations with its sister actors union, the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA quickly reached a new contract with the studios and is poised to expand its jurisdiction into prime-time TV shows typically covered under SAG contracts). The 44,000 members who belong to both unions could play a key role in the strike referendum, given that most of them already endorsed the AFTRA contract, which is virtually identical to the one the studios are offering SAG.
Although some prominent actors, including Rob Morrow and former SAG President Ed Asner, have declared their support for the union's leadership, other household names have openly challenged holding a strike authorization during the worst recession in decades.
"We do not believe in all good conscience now is the time to be putting people out of work," actress Rhea Perlman and her husband, actor Danny DeVito, wrote in a recent letter to SAG directors that was widely circulated.
