The maneuver to keep comic Jay Leno at NBC carries significant risks for Conan O'Brien, who has spent the last four years as Leno's heir apparent for the throne atop TV's talk heap as host of "The Tonight Show."
Now, installing Leno in a high-profile prime-time berth with a new show at 10 on weeknights could seriously complicate the succession, scheduled for June.
"It does take the wind out of his sails slightly," said Laura Caraccioli-Davis, executive vice president of ad-buying firm Starcom, referring to O'Brien. "Jay's audience will probably tune in to Jay, and Jay's audience is getting older and might appreciate the fact that Jay's coming on a lot earlier now. . . . So I feel like it puts Conan at a disadvantage. That's a lot of talk shows for one evening."
Indeed, NBC is more heavily invested in after-hours talk than any other network. Next year, executives will also hand "Late Night" to former "Saturday Night Live" cast member Jimmy Fallon. Including "Last Call With Carson Daly" in the mix, the network will be airing 3 1/2 hours of talk starting at 10 every night.
For the first time, the sum total of NBC's nightly talk-show hours per week (17.5) will exceed the prime-time hours (17) devoted to everything else: comedies, dramas, reality series and game shows.
Moreover, Leno and O'Brien are likely to compete for top celebrity bookings even more aggressively than they do now.
Traditionally, "The Tonight Show" has gotten first crack at major movie stars and presidential contenders largely because of its ratings success. (In the November ratings "sweep," "Tonight" averaged 4.9 million total viewers, compared with 2 million for O'Brien's "Late Night," according to Nielsen Media Research; CBS' "Late Show With David Letterman," which competes head-to-head with Leno, averaged 4 million.)
But that all may change if Leno winds up luring a big audience in prime time. And with O'Brien moving from New York to Universal City to take over a revamped "Tonight," both hosts will be drawing from the same celebrity pool.
"Those shows get tune-in based on guests," Caraccioli-Davis said, adding that NBC affiliate stations anxious to boost local news ratings could pressure the network to give Leno the upper hand. "In prime time, the affiliates are going to demand something to promote at 10, and the only thing you're going to promote at 10 are the celebrities."
At a taping for his show Tuesday, O'Brien said he was "thrilled" that Leno would remain with NBC.
