Hello Leno, goodbye scripted shows?
The NBC late-night host's move to 10 p.m. may be a further sign that the days of producing expensive hourlong dramas are numbered. It also may mean fewer Hollywood jobs.
NBC's decision to move Jay Leno to 10 p.m. next fall sends a clear warning to viewers and to Hollywood that the expensive, scripted programs that have dominated prime time for decades may go the way of the Edsel.
Only time will tell whether NBC's gambit is a stroke of programming genius or simply a way to avoid pushing the network's biggest star into early retirement -- Leno has long been scheduled to turn over the "Tonight Show" desk to Conan O'Brien in June. But NBC believes it is introducing the network-television equivalent of a Prius or SmartCar into a prime-time lineup populated with Packards.
In recent years, scripted shows have been on the decline, replaced by cheaper game shows and reality fare. Now the broadcast networks -- ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox -- are bracing for what they expect to be a severely depressed year as automakers, the largest advertisers on TV, and other companies slash spending during the worst recession in decades.
At the same time, more consumers are using digital video recorders to watch their favorite shows so they can skip the commercials, threatening the 30-second spot, which has long paid the bills in television. Viewers are also shifting to the Internet.
The networks spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually in an inefficient research-and-development process to discover the next breakout hit. A series such as "Friends" or "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" generates far more money than the cost of all of the clunkers along the way.
But production expenses have soared, and even the most popular prime-time comedies and dramas no longer are able to command audiences large enough for the networks to profit.
"Now the hits don't pay for all of the failures, and the advertising community won't pay for all failures either," said Laura Caraccioli-Davis, an executive vice president of Starcom USA, a Chicago advertising agency.
Replacing dramas with Leno could cost jobs in Southern California. "This could put a lot of people in Hollywood out of work," said Erik Sorenson, a former CBS News and MSNBC executive. "A lot more people work on five hours of scripted drama than on this one variety show."
Although all the networks are finding it more difficult to make money, NBC is in particularly desperate straits. The network, owned by General Electric Co., has not launched a blockbuster since "Heroes" in 2006, and the writers strike, which ended earlier this year, wreaked havoc on NBC's ability to develop shows. Its fall season immediately collapsed, with prime-time ratings plunging to a new low.
