As confidence in the economy wanes, the effect on the national birthrate will take time to show up in maternity wards and government data. Obstetricians have not seen a drop in pregnancies but expect to in the coming months, especially among middle-class families with shrinking incomes.
"From now on, people will think twice before they have kids," UCLA's Tabsh said. "Especially, parents who already have one or two or three kids will probably defer pregnancy until things get better."
Fertility specialists, who charge $12,000 on average for in-vitro fertilization, have already seen their practices decline. Pacific Reproductive Center, which runs five clinics in Southern California, is offering discounts. "An economic slowdown shouldn't force you to turn down conception," one of its fliers says.
"Even though you may still have your job and the same amount of money coming in, you keep getting those envelopes in the mail that your retirement plan has 20% less money in it," said Richard Paulson, head of the fertility program at USC. "When you lost $20,000 last week, it's very hard to say, 'Let's take another $10,000 out to get some fertility treatments.' "
Some couples looking to adopt are putting their plans on hold. Marieke and Rutger Hensel, who emigrated to Buena Park from the Netherlands two years ago, have three young boys but want two more children. A year ago, Marieke, 29, who runs her own Internet marketing firm, and Rutger, 33, who runs his own software business, completed a training course for foster care adoption.
But with corporations pulling back on spending, pinching the bottom line at both of their businesses, the Hensels have decided to wait for their profits to rebound before taking on the expense of more children.
"We know our kids are waiting for us somewhere," Marieke said.
Starting or growing a family often becomes more of a financial decision than an emotional one as parents calculate the sometimes overwhelming costs of healthcare, child care, education and other necessities, said Kathleen Gerson, a sociologist at New York University.
Though birthrates usually decline in a recession, there is a countervailing theory popular with some economists: Births may swell. Some women who lose their jobs may decide it's an opportune time to raise a child, said Gary Becker, a University of Chicago economist and sociologist.
Some working moms are making the same decision.
Jennifer Gniadecki, 33, a freelance writer in Homewood, Ill., and her husband, Randy, who works in online advertising, are the parents of two young girls and have always been careful with money. So they don't plan to defer their dream of having more children.
"Making a judgment about having a child based on the economy today is like selling all of your stocks when they are low," Gniadecki said. "It's very shortsighted."
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jessica.guynn@latimes.com
