WASHINGTON — Washington's hawkish policy toward Cuba, a durable legacy of the Cold War, is under pressure from pronounced shifts in U.S. public opinion and in Congress, amplified by the election of Barack Obama.
Obama's presidency raises the prospect of significant policy changes because of his campaign promises to consider talks with Havana and to lift restrictions on the ability of Cuban Americans to travel and send money to the island.
In addition, there are new signs that many Cuban Americans, whose anti-Castro fervor has sustained a tough approach, no longer favor the economic embargo that has been the policy's main ingredient. Congress is expected to press for reform next year as more Democrats enter and some hard-line Republicans retire.
Advocates of isolating Cuba "have been losing a lot of their mojo here," said Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who has long advocated greater engagement with Cuba.
Although he is willing to ease the U.S. stance, Obama is considered unlikely to move to swiftly end the economic embargo when he thinks it still represents leverage for change by the Cuban government.
The embargo, the longest-lasting in modern history, was imposed in 1962, after Fidel Castro's government seized private property and imposed authoritarian rule following the 1959 revolution. Polls show that Americans, including Cuban Americans, now view the embargo as a failure.
During the campaign, Obama was specific about his plans for Cuba. Testing old assumptions that a tough approach was needed to win Florida, he promised that as president, he would allow Cuban Americans to visit relatives and send money without limits.
U.S. rules, tightened by the Bush administration in 2004, restrict families to one visit every three years and limit remittances to $300 every three months.
Obama also said he was open to meeting with Cuban President Raul Castro, who succeeded brother Fidel, if it appeared from lower-level talks that such a meeting would be worthwhile. But at the same time, he has said he favors the embargo as a means of pressuring the Cuban government to take steps toward reform, such as releasing political prisoners.
Obama's advisors, many of whom have long advocated an overhaul of Cuba policy, said his statements mean that he is taking the first cautious steps toward reform and may do more later, depending in part on the Cuban response.
