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Latin America moves forcefully to fight slump

Rebound in the once-booming area hinges on a global recovery

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

December 16, 2008|Patrick J. McDonnell and Chris Kraul

Some view the assorted stimulus plans as populist measures meant to shore up political support but lacking in long-term substance, and possibly harmful.

"I don't think it's going to work," Roberto Padovani, with West LB investment bank in Sao Paulo, said of Brazil's latest stimulus blueprint. "The volume of fiscal spending is not enough to offset the international crisis impact. The government is just trying to show it's doing something regardless of negative longer-term effects on inflation and the currency. It's a wonderful economic mistake."


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Presidents such as Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva -- who initially said their economies were inoculated against the U.S.-born financial malady -- have made an abrupt about-face. While repeating last week that "the crisis wasn't caused by us," Lula conceded the interlocking nature of the global economy as word of layoffs, a slumping currency and reduced export revenue unsettled Brazil.

Many worry that the slowdown could jeopardize the social gains in Latin America since 2002, when the worldwide commodities boom ushered in one of the region's most sustained eras of growth. Nations such as Brazil that have invested heavily in curtailing hunger and poverty will probably have fewer funds for such social spending, analysts say.

The percentage of Latin Americans in poverty fell to 33.2% this year compared to 44% in 2002, according to a United Nations study released last week. Unemployment dropped to 7.5%, down from 11% in 2002. But the picture has rapidly turned gloomier.

"We don't think unemployment will go down in 2009, and it might even go up," said Martin Hopenhayn, a U.N. economist based in Santiago, Chile.

Among the nations taking the most dramatic and controversial actions has been Argentina, where memories of the 2001-02 economic meltdown and default remain fresh.

The nation's lower house of Congress approved a series of tax breaks last week aimed at encouraging the repatriation of tens of billions of dollars in offshore assets. Critics say the plan could increase money laundering while doing little real good because many Argentines have scarce faith in the government and banks and prefer to keep their savings abroad.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner also unveiled a $90-million loan program for the hard-hit tourism industry. That comes on top of a multibillion-dollar public-works program and subsidized loans for auto purchases. She also nationalized $30 billion in private pensions in a move that spooked investors and sent the stock market tumbling.

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