It's chilly out there -- and that applies not only to the weather but also to moviegoer interest.
With one week remaining in the 2008 movie season, annual attendance is off more than 3% compared with last year, according to the box-office research firm Media by Numbers. Thanks to higher ticket prices, year-to-date grosses are running about 1% ahead of 2007's record pace of $9.68 billion, but with DVD sales and international returns crumbling, no one in Hollywood has cause to burst into song (flames, maybe).
While distributors and exhibitors blamed last weekend's poor box-office results ("Yes Man" and "Seven Pounds" both opened well below expectations) on snowstorms, more reasonable executives admit there's simply too little audience excitement.
If the movie business can end the year on an upbeat note, it will hinge on the performance of five big films premiering in wide release on Christmas. While many of December's releases so far have been award-oriented dramas that are managing solid but hardly blockbuster returns, this weekend's slate is far more commercial -- and there might be one, if not two, $200-million-grossing films in the mix.
Here's our ranking of how the new movies should premiere, ordered from best to worst, with mitigating and aggravating circumstances taken into account: .
'Bedtime Stories'
annual attendance Marketing executives from rival studios say Disney's campaign for its Adam Sandler family fantasy has been perfect, and audience tracking surveys now are showing that the sales effort is peaking at just the right time. With interest from parents and kids sky-high, "Bedtime Stories" will finish in first place, possibly grossing as much as $45 million over the four-day weekend. If audience support holds into the new year, it could end up becoming a $200-million breakout.
Mitigating: With everybody arguing over what movie to see over the holidays, "Bedtime Stories" could be the compromise pick.
Aggravating: Sandler's core comedy audience (older teens and young males) may opt for "Valkyrie" or "The Spirit" instead.
'Marley & Me'
annual attendance Fox's joyless commercial and critical year is finally ending, but it could close on a positive note. The studio's adaptation of the bestselling book about a lovable but sometimes wayward dog is generating strong interest from women of all ages. The Owen Wilson-Jennifer Aniston movie also is the kind of tear-jerker that feels far more appropriate at Christmas than "Seven Pounds." Look for an opening weekend around $30 million.
