BASRA, IRAQ — Eight months after he sent in troops to restore calm to blighted Basra, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is skirmishing with rivals here ahead of elections that will test whether he can convert his military successes into a lasting political victory.
The stakes are high: The winner in the provincial elections, scheduled for Jan. 31, gains control of the country's major oil-producing center and port, its economic lifeline to the world.
But Maliki, who wants Basra under the jurisdiction of Baghdad's central government, faces a dizzying array of rivals, all fellow Shiite Muslims, with very different goals. One party, for instance, wants to break free of the capital and become something akin to a city state; another wants to create a nine-province "super region" that could dwarf Baghdad in power.
The last provincial elections, in 2005, sparked an ugly cycle of assassinations and political violence, in which most political parties were implicated. The next elections could either shatter or bolster the stability established since March, when Maliki ordered the Iraqi army and national police to crack down on armed groups.
"The potential for violence is certainly there," says Norwegian historian Reidar Visser, an expert on the Shiite south.
As the election nears, Maliki is busy maneuvering. He has tapped local leaders to organize tribes in support of the central government. And under Maliki's direction, the national government has funded $100 million worth of reconstruction projects in Basra, bypassing the provincial council. The national government also has started paying unemployment benefits in the province.
"I think Maliki will play a major role in Basra," says parliament member Haidar Abadi, a member of the prime minister's Islamic Dawa Party. "People . . . support and trust the central government more than local authorities."
But other factions also are maneuvering. The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Maliki's main partner in the national government but also his party's main rival, wants Basra to serve as an anchor of a Shiite-majority nine-state federal region in the south. Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr's followers wish to reclaim their influence in the port city, which they dominated before the springtime military offensive. The Al Fadila al Islamiya party of Gov. Mohammed Waeli wishes to hold on to privileges accrued in the last four years, notably its influence in the oil industry.
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