Downsizing our dominance

Nations, including those whose leaders aren't so disposed to anti-Americanism, have learned, through experience or observation, that defying Washington carries no penalty. Germany joins France in opposing resolutions on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council -- and nothing happens to Germany. The Turkish parliament votes against letting U.S. troops invade Iraq from the north -- and nothing happens to Turkey. Bush warns Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to trample on human rights; the trampling continues -- and not only does nothing happen to Egypt, but on his recent trip to the Middle East, Bush commends Mubarak for his commitment to democracy.

Meanwhile, the dollar is plunging. American debt is in the hands of Chinese central bankers. And the U.S. military, though by far the world's strongest, is stretched beyond its means in Iraq and Afghanistan -- conflicts that, in Cold War days, would have been labeled "small wars."

The next president can begin to rebuild U.S. influence, but he or she cannot do it alone. The task requires rebuilding alliances, and that is a harder task than before.

In the presidential debates, the Republican candidates have hardly mentioned allies at all. Most of them act as if they don't care what the rest of the world thinks about us. (In this respect, they're ignoring lessons that Bush himself has, too late, begun to learn.) All the Democratic candidates have called for improving relations with allies and engaging in more diplomacy. This is welcome. But whether out of political calculation or naivete, they understate the difficulties.

A Democratic president will almost certainly open direct talks with Iran. There are many reasons why this is a good idea. But there is often an unspoken assumption that talking, by itself, will clear the air and solve problems. In many situations, though, the vital interests of two countries are simply irreconcilable -- and neither has the power to make the other give in.

If the next president wants Iran, say, to give up enriching uranium, what enticements is he or she willing to offer in return? What lesser interests is he or she willing to compromise or sacrifice in exchange for fulfilling that larger interest? It may turn out that the most generous package that any American president could reasonably offer won't be generous enough for the Iranians to forgo their work on the nuclear project.