Overall, as the presidential campaign heated up through the fall and winter, Democrats gained almost 150,000 voters statewide, while Republicans lost a little more than 25,000.
State Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring said that while the registration numbers have gone Democratic, that is only one factor in determining the future.
"The world is not run by those who are registered, but by those who show up," Nehring said. "When you dig down, where Democrats have a registration advantage, Republicans have a turnout advantage."
Presidential elections always begin with campaigns pledging to run hard in every state. But, money being what it is, the targets of opportunity are gradually narrowed under a formula that weighs the electoral votes that are in play versus how much it would cost to win them.
In recent years, California has lost out either on the first question or the second: Can the Republican nominee win here? Isn't it cheaper to get those electoral votes somewhere else?
The result: In each of the last four presidential campaigns, Democrats won by double-digit margins.
Central to the question of whether they do it again will be independent voters. Since September, their ranks have gained almost 63,000 voters.
They are not averse to Republican candidates, having supported Arnold Schwarzenegger in his two elections. Those voters are seen as more entranced with hard-to-measure attributes like character and leadership than are party regulars, who tend to put weight on obedience to orthodoxy.
Independents' presence gives Republicans hope, but there is a consensus that they will vote Republican only if McCain is the nominee. McCain, the former prisoner of war in Vietnam who has made his name as a burr under the saddle of official Washington, is far more in their mold than other recent candidates.
"He does not carry the baggage that Republican candidates carried before," said Tony Quinn, a GOP demographer. "He's an environmentalist; he's not dripping with Southern morality like George Bush was."
McCain spent time last week campaigning at a solar energy firm with Schwarzenegger; he alone of the GOP candidates has talked at length about global warming. His residence in Arizona gives McCain an ease with Western issues, Republicans believe.
As for Mitt Romney, he ran as a moderate Republican when seeking the governorship of Massachusetts, but in this campaign has hewn to strict conservative positions.
