Also, if we are in fact in a recession, more Americans will lose their jobs, potentially adding tens of billions in mandatory spending on unemployment benefits to the deficit.
But it gets worse. Of Bush's $987.6 billion in discretionary spending, more than half -- $515.4 billion -- would go to the Pentagon, but that doesn't include any war funding. To be sure, the president did request $75.8 billion in emergency funding, of which $70 billion is targeted for the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism, with the remainder going toward hurricane relief for the Gulf Coast. However, because this amount received an emergency designation, it is not included in the deficit projections.
That war spending figure is totally inaccurate, by the way. It does not include enough money to fight the wars for more than a few months in 2009. If recent history is any indication, the war budgeting is off by $70 billion to $140 billion. In 2007, we spent more than $190 billion on the wars. In 2008, Bush has requested about $200 billion, of which only $100 billion was appropriated and included in the deficit projections for the year. It is unlikely that the cost of the war for 2009 will suddenly drop to $70 billion.
And that's true even if the United States withdraws some of its troops from Iraq. After six continuous years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, U.S. military equipment is wearing out fast. The Pentagon is focused on recapitalizing, and these spending requests will be sent to Congress in emergency bills for many years to come, including 2009.
Not to worry, though. The president's projections show the budget running a surplus of $48 billion by fiscal 2012. That fantastical figure includes some rosy assumptions -- that the Democrats in Congress enact Bush's proposal to trim the growth of Medicare and Medicaid by $195.7 billion over five years; that the alternative minimum tax is allowed to hit more taxpayers after the 2008 tax year; and that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are not funded beyond fiscal 2009. Even if all that came true, the White House should be focusing on reducing the size of government, not just reducing overspending.
The $3.1-trillion fiscal 2009 budget proposal represents Bush's last chance to establish his legacy. Unfortunately, it will be one of massive deficit spending that will be paid for by generations to come.
