Of all the wild scenarios spun out for the 2008 presidential campaign, perhaps the least likely was the one we face: a Republican contest that was effectively over the morning after Super Tuesday, and a Democratic cage match that could go on and on and on -- all the way to a tumultuous and unpredictable convention in August.
I, for instance, offered an unconventional convention scenario (on these pages) back in July, noting that the uniquely early start (called "front loading") of the primary process, combined with the compressed schedule, could provide a formula for an extended, pitched battle, with no candidate getting close to a majority after Super Tuesday. But I made it clear that this was more likely to happen on the Republican side, where many plausible candidates were running against one another and none seemed to be getting more than tepid support.
The Democrats, on the other hand, already had a front-running candidate, highly regarded by most Democratic partisans, and an enthusiastic electorate that wanted to pick a nominee and get on with the big battle -- ending the Bush era once and for all.
Oops. Wrong again. Despite a near-collapse of his candidacy in the summer, and despite Rush Limbaugh-led opposition from a core group of right-wing nabobs of negativism, John McCain stayed standing as such highly touted candidates as Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson faltered. McCain emerged intact and strong heading into Super Tuesday, won all the big winner-take-all states and nearly swept California as well. McCain will wind up this week with about two-thirds of the delegates needed to clinch a nomination, with his major rival, Mitt Romney, gone from the race and with his new chief opponent, Mike Huckabee, saddled with a narrow, regional base. Already, the core conservative establishment of the party is closing ranks behind McCain.
The Democratic Party's process, meanwhile, successfully winnowed its field quickly and ruthlessly to two candidates -- but is now left, paradoxically, with the most evenly divided, strong and impressive duo in modern history. Their results at this point are eerily similar. When the dust has settled from Super Tuesday, Obama and Clinton will not be far apart in delegates. Despite winning very different kinds of states, their nationwide vote totals on Super Tuesday were virtually identical as well.
So how might the next few weeks and months play out? It turns out that's a complicated question. Start by considering their bases of support. Clinton has downscale Democratic voters, older voters, women and Latinos. Obama has upscale voters, younger voters and African Americans. Overall, there are more Democrats who are downscale than upscale, more older than younger, more Latino than African American. Advantage Clinton.
Now consider the calendar. The next three weeks have states with caucuses, which favor enthusiastic volunteers and ground organization, such as Nebraska, Washington, Maine and Hawaii, as well as states with substantial African American populations, such as Louisiana, Maryland and Virginia (and the District of Columbia), and states with many colleges and students, such as Wisconsin. Advantage Obama.
But then, on March 4, Democrats choose delegates in two big states with significant working-class voting populations (Ohio) and large numbers of Latinos (Texas). Advantage Clinton.
With a long slog still ahead, money takes on enhanced importance, both to keep large staffs on the payroll while mobilizing volunteer armies and also to advertise nationally and in selected states. Obama raised a mind-boggling $32 million in January, most of it from small donors (including 170,000 new donors in one month alone). Nearly half of Obama's money has come from donors giving $200 or less. Clinton raised less than half that amount in January, lent her campaign -- a la Romney -- $5 million from her own pocket and has a majority of her money coming from $1,000-plus donors, most of whom have already given the maximum $2,300 and cannot give more. That means Obama can go back to his donors but Clinton cannot. Advantage -- big advantage -- Obama.
Now throw in the super delegates. Of the 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, 796 are super delegates -- members of the Democratic National Committee, county and state party officials, mayors, governors, state legislators and members of Congress. Unlike the delegates now being divvied up in the primaries and caucuses, super delegates are uncommitted, free to endorse candidates (and to change their endorsement) at any time. Most of them have known the Clintons for years, giving her a natural advantage, and she has already secured endorsements from almost 200 of them, double the number Obama has secured. Advantage Clinton.
