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Potomac primaries favor Obama

Clinton's camp expects him to sweep, but backers see a chance for a Virginia surprise.

CAMPAIGN '08

February 12, 2008|Stephen Braun, Times Staff Writer

Obama and Sen. Clinton also made separate speeches Saturday at the Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Richmond. But Clinton was the first of the two rivals to appear in Virginia after last week's Super Tuesday contests, speaking Thursday to 2,000 high school students at a rally in Arlington.

Her debut at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington was a bit rocky. She was more than two hours late, and when she finally arrived to her cheering crowd of fidgeting students, she was introduced by an excited host as "Hillary Rodham."


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Ignoring the apparent slip-up, Clinton worked her young audience like a talk-show host. She alternated stage whispers and hoarse exhortations, gently rebuking presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, "a friend of mine," for "offering more of the same" in Iraq and on the economy.

She mentioned Obama as well, questioning the Illinois senator's experience, asking who "would be the best president to start from Day 1?"

There was no talk of friendship with Obama, who is well positioned to win many of Maryland's and the District of Columbia's delegates.

Though the nation's capital has a 56.5% black majority and Maryland's 29.5% black population is slightly larger than that of South Carolina -- where Obama trounced Clinton last month -- Virginia's 19.9% African American enclave is not as formidable politically. That forces Virginia Democrats to knit together seemingly incompatible coalitions to win primaries or general elections.

Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb, both recent Democratic winners, broke Virginia's long-standing GOP electoral hammerlock by relying on independents and a fragile patchwork of white and minority Democratic voters.

Independents will be allowed to vote with either party in Virginia's primary. That could be a boon for Obama, who has scored well among independent voters in previous open primaries.

After former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's withdrawal from the GOP race last week and McCain's virtual anointment, some independents may feel more inclined to vote in the Democratic race, where they would have a greater effect.

For Clinton and Obama, "it's a real balancing act to win here," said Paul Goldman, a veteran Democratic political strategist who advised Kaine and Richmond Mayor L. Douglas Wilder. "They're both coming in with their own natural constituencies. But the wild card this year is turnout. That makes it so hard to predict."

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