Warner's Jan. 4 announcement that it could no longer support both HD DVD and Blu-ray triggered a major shift in momentum in a format war that has been likened to the epic Betamax-VHS videocassette battle of the 1980s.
Up until January, Blu-ray and HD DVD each accounted for an equal share of dedicated high-definition movie players, according to sales data tracked by NPD. In the week following the Warner announcement, Blu-ray sales skyrocketed -- grabbing 90% of all next-generation hardware purchased, according to NPD.
Toshiba responded with a price cut Jan. 15 on three models of HD DVD players, which helped it regain lost ground. But NPD numbers show that Blu-ray retained the edge, with 63% of sales. In an act that some called a last gasp, Toshiba touted its discounted players in an ad that ran during the Super Bowl, noting that they also worked as high-end DVD players.
This week Toshiba issued a statement saying it was studying recent developments and watching how the market would respond to its recent price cuts.
HD DVD movie sales have declined as well.
At the end of 2007, Blu-ray accounted for 64% of sales. The latest Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales data show that Blu-ray represented 81% of all high-definition discs sold in the week ended Sunday.
Wal-Mart's decision, which it said came in response to consumer preference, may make Blu-ray's lead insurmountable. Wal-Mart accounts for roughly 40% of all DVDs sold in the U.S.
"It's difficult to see how the format could be viable without access to those movies at Wal-Mart," NPD's Rubin said.
Andrew Parsons, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Assn.'s U.S. promotions group, said Wal-Mart's news signaled that the format war was all but over.
"People who've been holding back because they've been afraid to buy the wrong format have absolutely no reason to be afraid anymore," Parsons said. "There's absolutely no reason why anyone should be afraid to buy a Blu-ray player at this point."
Nonetheless, Envisioneering Group senior analyst Richard Doherty predicted that Toshiba would continue to support the HD DVD format, which it has also incorporated in products such as its Qosmio laptop computers. However, it may reduce the number of HD DVD players it manufactures to a single model.
"They will never admit this isn't working," Doherty said. "They'll just trim the inventory."
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dawn.chmielewski @latimes.com
