WASHINGTON — Fidel Castro's resignation as Cuba's president arrived on a long-awaited yet disappointing day for U.S. leaders who unsuccessfully worked for decades to help bring about his government's collapse.
Almost from the time Castro seized power in 1959, U.S. leaders have shaped their policies around their confidence that the communist regime on Florida's doorstep soon would give way to a democratic and pro-U.S. government.
Yet Castro has survived the assassination attempts, a tightening U.S. trade embargo, economic crises and even the fall of his patrons in the Soviet Union.
Through 10 U.S. administrations, Castro's government has remained in place.
Now, even at the epochal moment of his departure, U.S. hopes for dramatic change are muted. Limited steps toward economic liberalization are possible, but no one is forecasting the advent of Western-style political freedoms anytime soon.
Instead, the approaching changes may at best resemble Chinese economic reforms, except on a tiny, Cuban scale.
Forecasts of Castro's demise "have been a pipe dream from the beginning, and they still are," said Wayne S. Smith, a former U.S. State Department official. "This government has been far more durable, and more flexible, than people here gave him credit for."
As a result, the authoritarian cast of Fidelismo could remain in place for years to come, whether U.S. policymakers stick with harsh measures or turn to engagement.
Given the political clout of thousands of anti-Castro Cuban Americans, rapid changes in the U.S. embargo are unlikely, especially in an election year. Whether the next administration alters that stance depends in large part on political changes in Cuba.
Sen. Barack Obama, a Democratic presidential contender who favors engagement with U.S. adversaries, said Tuesday that he would like to ease the embargo against Cuba, but demanded the release of political prisoners. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton called for a "transition to democracy" in Cuba.
Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential front-runner, welcomed Castro's resignation but said it was "nearly a half century overdue."
The rise of Castro, the son of a Spanish immigrant, was a challenge to Washington from the beginning. The Caribbean island symbolized the threatening proximity of revolution, and when Castro allowed Russian missiles on his territory during the height of the Cold War, it brought the United States as close as it has ever come to nuclear war.
