Oscar bumps up ego, sure, but box office?

THE predictable pronouncement by likely Academy Award losers -- that the real honor is the nomination, not the Oscar itself -- is about as credible as anyone's saying they can't wait for the next "Harold & Kumar" movie. But when it comes to box office returns, an Oscar nomination is indeed far more valuable than taking home the top trophy.

With the studios and their specialized film divisions spending tens of millions of dollars on award campaigns, it's natural to assume the holy grail is the Oscar statuette. It's an attractive myth, and one that gets a lot of media attention. If only it were still true.

Though the little gold man is an imposing addition to any bookcase and briefly slakes the unquenchable vanity of filmmakers, producers and studio executives, its effect on a film's ultimate profitability is routinely negligible. In some cases, an over-the-top campaign -- "Good Night, and Good Luck" being an excellent recent example -- can actually slash a film's profitability.

Any "Oscar bump," in other words, translates into more prestige and ego boost than a box office bonus. Among this year's best picture nominees, only one movie, "There Will Be Blood," clearly stands to benefit at the multiplex were it to win the top prize, because its theatrical release could still build.

The reason has less to do with the prestige of the Oscars than the timing of the ceremony itself and the increasingly short theatrical life almost all movies enjoy. Academy Award eligibility is governed by release dates, and, even with the Oscar ceremony now in February instead of March, movies released in late 2007 have been in theaters for two months or more -- an eternity compared with many films -- by the time the awards are handed out.

If a movie is in the midst of a slowly building national release when the nominations are revealed in late January -- the case with "Million Dollar Baby" -- the benefits of both prominent nominations and a best picture triumph can be enormous. But most films in this year's best picture race have little room to grow theatrically, meaning most additional Oscar returns will come through increased DVD sales.

Over the last four years, all but one best picture winner has bagged the lion's share of its ticket sales well before the Academy Award telecast. In 2004, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" had grossed more than $337.8 million when the nominations were announced and $364.1 million by the time it collected the best picture Oscar. After the win, "The Return of the King" grossed less than $13 million more, or just 3.4% of its total theatrical haul.