The elder Castro has been disparaging much of the talk of open produce markets and ethanol production from sugar cane. But in one of his periodic "reflections" on life, he vowed to be careful and conciliatory in expressing his opinions, leading analysts to conclude that he will try not to micromanage his successors.
Cuba's leaders are considered protective of Castro's legacy, which includes providing free healthcare and education, even as critics point to constraints on political dissent and personal freedoms.
"But for that legacy to survive, they need to have a working economy in Cuba -- not for the sake of the global economy, but for the people of Cuba," said Zamora, who travels to the island nation every few months to analyze investment opportunities for clients across Latin America.
Jorge Pinon, an energy analyst with the University of Miami's Center for Hemispheric Policy and a retired oil industry executive, agreed that agriculture is the most likely first reform target. The country must also address its monetary system, which has created a class divide between those Cubans with access to U.S. dollars and those without, he said.
Opportunities to draw more investment in oil exploration and nickel mining have also emerged, Pinon said. Those industries, he said, could provide more lucrative employment to Cubans than the state-run factories and enterprises currently paying workers less than $20 a month.
Castro vacillated over the decades in his insistence that capitalism be fully exorcised from his country, says Luis Martinez-Fernandez, a Cuban-born University of Central Florida history professor writing a book about Castro's revolution.
Necessity forced him to allow some private shops and services to emerge in the early 1990s, as well as to allow Cubans abroad to send dollar remittances to family on the island, Martinez-Fernandez said.
"If we want to maintain the gains of the revolution, the best way is to have a gradual transition, one that is peaceful and one that is controlled from the top and controlled by Cubans," he said.
An opportunity now exists for Cuba's leaders to step back and rethink their development course and how best to protect the gains of the revolution, added Martinez-Fernandez.
"We have two very stubborn world leaders who have been intransigent with each other for a long time: George W. Bush and Fidel Castro. But in a few months neither of them will be in power," said the professor. "The moment is very auspicious."
