Peters said the new Cuban president is likely to roll out the changes step by step, to avoid the destabilizing swings in the economy that radical change brought in Eastern Europe. A successor to Fidel Castro is expected to be named Sunday when the National Assembly convenes to propose a new executive body, the 31-member Council of State.
Castro's potential successors seem more comfortable with the prospect of some Cubans being able to increase their incomes through self-employment than he was, Peters said.
Vice President Carlos Lage and Raul Castro, both considered in line for the presidency, teamed up in the 1990s with foreign investors to develop hotels, airlines and tour companies that now cater to more than 2 million visitors a year.
Others see Fidel Castro's resignation as the removal of an impediment to the kind of economic transformation necessary to address the basic needs of Cuba's more than 11 million people.
"It's not a radical change in the leadership of the country, nor in the policies of the country. But it's an important crack in the door," said Alan Becker, a lawyer who deals with property rights, trade and international business. "The successors to Fidel will want to make it their own, just as shifts occurred in China which took some time to morph into an almost state capitalism."
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carol.williams@latimes.com
