While homicides fell significantly, serious crime in the dozens of communities patrolled by the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department rose 4% overall in 2007 -- prompting Sheriff Lee Baca to warn that a worsening economy could present a tough crime picture for 2008.
An increase in robberies, aggravated assaults, burglaries and other property crimes drove the crime uptick, according to statistics compiled by the department, which protects about 3 million people.
Baca said rising unemployment in some impoverished communities doesn't bode well for the year ahead.
"Our economy is driving the property crimes -- burglary and larceny," the sheriff said. "In some communities, with high unemployment, some people resort to theft."
Baca's concerns are borne out by Los Angeles County's unemployment rate, which stood at 5.3% in November, nearly 1% higher than the same month a year before. It was the largest year-to-year increase since 2002.
At the same time, however, serious crime dropped 4.9% on neighboring turf patrolled by the Los Angeles Police Department, which also recorded its fewest homicides -- 392 -- in 37 years. LAPD Chief William J. Bratton, in comments Wednesday, differed sharply with Baca in his analysis of crime.
"I will take them all on, the economists, the criminologists, all of these people who give you the baloney," Bratton said. "What makes the difference is cops focused on crime."
Malcolm Klein, professor emeritus of sociology at USC and a gang expert, said Bratton is mistaken in deriding socioeconomic factors but said it's overly simplistic to draw a direct connection between unemployment and the crime rate.
"The answers are more complex. It may be something going down nationally," Klein said.
"It's hard to believe the economy in the county areas is any different than in neighboring Los Angeles," said George Tita, a UC Irvine criminology professor. "The reality is we don't know what . . . makes crime numbers go up and down."
Baca also blamed narcotics for fueling the rise in thefts, burglaries and robberies in the more than 3,000 square miles his deputies patrol. "Drug users commit a couple of hundred crimes each a year," he said.
Baca said that his 17% reduction in homicides, coming on top of a 13% plunge in 2006, is a success story. Deputies investigated 273 slayings, down from 328 the previous year.
Compton was a bright spot, reporting a sharp drop in homicides since 2005.
