DGA as peacemaker

So the stage is set for a disaster. If the directors accept a lowball new-media deal, the Writers Guild and SAG may well reject it as a template, and pattern bargaining would break down. SAG's position would embolden the Writers Guild leadership to maintain the strike, despite pressure from some writers to end the walkout. Come June 30, when the actors deal expires, SAG would go on strike too.

At that point, the industry would be in all-out civil war, with battle lines drawn: the writers and SAG on one side, and studios, networks, directors, crew and AFTRA on the other. Feature film production would cease, just as scripted TV production already has, but studios and networks would limp along for a while on a diet of reality TV and movies already in the can. The two strikes could stretch on for months longer.

In this scenario, everyone suffers, including the directors. If there are no scripts and no actors, there's nothing to direct. More people would lose their jobs, and bitterness would increase dramatically, making it ever harder to hammer out new contracts.

There's an obvious way to avert this scorched-earth scenario: The directors have to insist on a deal that the writers and actors can live with, even to the point of threatening a strike of their own. That's a tough script to follow: It's hard to negotiate on someone else's behalf, and strikes are alien to the directors (they've only walked out once in seven decades, and that was for just five minutes).

But if the DGA negotiators pull it off, pieces start to fall into place. A good directors deal gives the writers and studios incentive to restart their own talks, which ended five weeks ago when the studios walked out. They could then close a deal on new media on the same terms as the directors, ending the strike. SAG would presumably do a similar deal, without ever striking.

A movie set is a tough place; a cast and crew of hundreds depend on the director to keep the show moving. This time, though, the "cast and crew" number in the tens of thousands, and millions more people are watching. The stakes are high. Let's hope the directors don't yell "Cut!" too quickly.