Super delegates may sink the Democrats
Rules adopted in 1982 to take back the nominating process could haunt the party's leaders.
With the presidential nominations still very much up for grabs, the 2008 primaries have quickly shaped up as the most interesting in recent memory.
Some early predictions were that the nominations would be a foregone conclusion by now or, at the latest, after Feb. 5, when 24 states, including California, hold primaries and caucuses. But both parties' races are still so tight and in flux that there is a chance in each party that no candidate will capture enough votes to secure the nomination before the conventions. This development would lead to great upheaval for either party, but it may be a significantly bigger danger for the Democrats because of a rule enacted in 1982 by party leaders. In 2008, the result may be a Democratic convention choosing a nominee who lacks the legitimacy of being the "people's choice."
Until 1972, there was no uniform primary-and-caucus system; the nominees of both parties were chosen by the convention delegates. But after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic primary races, and after party leaders ensured then-Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey received the nomination despite not running in any primary, the party opened up the process. Suddenly, primaries and caucuses became the important component to the nominee selection process.
However, this did not help the party win the presidency. The 1972 nominee, George McGovern, did very well in the primaries but went on to a crushing defeat in the general election. The party leaders saw further erosion of their own power in the two succeeding elections, as little-heralded Jimmy Carter won the nomination and the presidency in 1976, and Edward Kennedy was able to mount an unsuccessful but damaging primary challenge to Carter in 1980. In response, party leaders made a significant revision to the selection process.
In 1982, party leaders allocated for themselves a heaping portion of the delegates, creating positions called super delegates. Every Democratic member of Congress, every Democratic governor and all of the elected members of the Democratic National Committee (the majority of the super delegates) were each granted a vote at the convention. Party leaders assumed this would help them retain a measure of control over the process -- and of course continue to be granted the bounty of political favors that historically flowed from backing the right horse at the convention. In 2008, the 796 super delegates will make up about 20% of the entire convention. Winning the nomination requires 2,025 delegates.
