Apocalyptic politics
The religious right has splintered, but hard times could bring it back.
For conservatives, 2008 is shaping up to be a year as baffling as it is dreadful. For Americans under 40, it seems incredible that the Republican platform should not be rooted in the moral assumptions of traditionally minded Christian groups allied with conservative economic stances and an aggressive foreign policy. And yet that familiar model fits none of the party's likely presidential candidates -- not evangelical Mike Huckabee, with his economic populism, or pro-choice and pro-gay rights Rudy Giuliani. Neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney convinces many people that his conversion to moralist positions is anything other than a matter of convenience.
Evangelical voters are deeply divided, and even religious voters who remain concerned about abortion and homosexuality are deeply unhappy about Iraq, charges of torture and runaway climate change. At least for the present, the dependable Republican coalition forged during the 1970s looks terminally ill.
These strains are easier to understand, however, if we recall how improbable the seemingly inevitable GOP coalition has always been. The alliances among the Republicans' diverse constituencies grew out of a particular set of historical circumstances.
The conservative coalition is the product of events that more or less coincided with the doom-laden presidency of Jimmy Carter. Between 1977 and 1980, even Americans of quite moderate views became desperately alarmed at the signs of social decay at home, the collapse of the nation's international standing and a hair-raising economic situation. This was the era of the Iran hostage crisis; of gasoline lines and surging inflation; of booming violent crime, urban decay and the worrying, fast transformation of sexual values. Not for the first time in American history, many voters saw the crisis in religious terms, as the consequence of a nation that had betrayed its divine mission.
Building on a widespread evangelical revival, religious conservatives mobilized a substantial voting bloc alarmed by what seemed like a literally apocalyptic situation. They preached the necessity of rebuilding America's defenses and restraining the liberal government that they held guilty of causing many undesirable changes. Although these ideas had broad appeal, conservative religious believers offered a rock-solid electoral foundation through the Reagan years and beyond.
