SACRAMENTO -- — Half of likely California voters support Proposition 93, the ballot measure to adjust the Legislature's term limits, but nearly as many appear poised to reject it, according to a new poll.
A week before election day, with most respondents saying they have made up their minds, the initiative shows no strong lead, according to a Times/CNN/Politico poll conducted by Opinion Research Corp.
The 1,218 likely primary voters interviewed Wednesday through Sunday under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus showed 50% supporting Proposition 93 and 46% opposing it, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Republicans are evenly split on the measure. Democrats and independents show more inclination to vote for it, but initiatives generally need stronger support before election day to overcome the tendency of uncertain voters to say no.
"Historically, you do need to be over 50% during the last couple of weeks," said Tony Quinn, co-editor of the Target Book, which tracks legislative and congressional races.
Other surveys taken in recent months have tracked an erosion of support for Proposition 93, with the most significant declines among Republicans and voters older than 50.
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, in a reversal, endorsed the initiative this month. His experience in Sacramento, he said, convinced him that "special interests and lobbyists up there are so much more sophisticated and so much more advanced than the politicians."
Orchestrated by the Legislature's Democratic leadership and funded by many corporations, unions and other interests with a stake in legislative action, Proposition 93 would alter the term limits voters passed in 1990.
It would shorten the overall number of years a legislator may serve from 14 to 12 but allow all of those years to be spent in either the Assembly or Senate. Under current law, members of the Assembly are allowed three two-year terms and senators are permitted two four-year terms.
Proposition 93 would also allow current legislators to stay, regardless of time previously spent in the Legislature, until they have served a total of 12 years in their current house. That clause would enable Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles) and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata (D-Oakland) to run for an additional six and four years, respectively.
