The price of oil in the futures market and gasoline at the pump didn't change much Monday -- but still managed to set records. Pessimism, meanwhile, kept ratcheting higher.
Analysts warn that the relative lull in oil and gasoline costs probably will be temporary, with crude heading toward $160 a barrel and gasoline rising as high as $5 a gallon in California this summer.
The average price for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline rose 1.6 cents nationwide to $4.095, up $1.136 from this time last year, according to the Energy Department's weekly survey of filling stations. The U.S. average reached another all-time high after slipping the previous Monday from the record $4.082 a gallon set Sept. 16.
In California, the average fell 1.2 cents to $4.573 a gallon. A year earlier, the state's average price was $1.416 a gallon lower.
Crude oil for August delivery closed down 21 cents Monday to $140 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a record $143.67 early in the day.
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., said drivers paid a record $48 billion for gasoline in June and probably will shell out more than $50 billion this month for the first time in a single month. Five years ago, Kloza said, Americans were spending about $18 billion a month on gasoline.
Bad weather would bring even worse news for consumers.
"In August, it's all going to be about the hurricane season, and the people who trade in the markets will be limbering up their hamstrings for that," Kloza said.
He added that a storm wouldn't even have to hit the Gulf Coast's petroleum industry for it to drive prices higher.
"We could go to $4.25 to $4.75 nationally, and $5 in California is within the realm of possibility," Kloza said.
Evidence continues to roll in that drivers are downshifting their time behind the wheel. California's Board of Equalization said Monday that state motorists cut gasoline consumption in March by 3.2%, or 43.5 million gallons, compared with the same month in 2007.
One of the more extreme examples of a person cutting gas consumption is retired salesman George Campos, 78, of Upland. Although many seniors hold on to their right to drive as an important symbol of independence and self-sufficiency, Campos -- clear of eye and mind and with a valid California driver's license -- has given up driving altogether.
