Attention must be paid

Consider the scope of the problem. In recent months, more U.S. troops have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq. According to The Times, in the first three months of 2008, insurgent attacks were up by nearly 40% in just the eastern provinces, compared with the same time period in 2007. Overall, according to the International Crisis Group, suicide bombings went up by 600% between 2005 and 2007, and insurgent attacks by 400%. (The Afghan insurgents, who apparently have a plentiful supply of Ritalin, are paying close attention to successful Iraqi insurgent and terrorist tactics and studiously applying those lessons.)

Meanwhile, U.S. and NATO troops operate under confusingly different rules of engagement and report to different command structures. The Afghan government remains weak and corrupt; the humanitarian situation remains fragile. And when things get hot, terrorists, Taliban and Afghan insurgents find convenient safe harbor across the border in Pakistan (one of the largest recipients of U.S. military aid), while elements of Pakistan's government turn a blind eye.

Unfortunately, we can't afford to ignore or abandon Afghanistan. With its flammable mixture of violent extremism, illicit drug profits and a tottering nuclear-armed neighbor (Pakistan), the situation there -- unlike that in Iraq -- presents a critical threat to U.S. and global security.

We need to make a long-term commitment to Afghanistan, but it won't be easy. At best, we'll withdraw most of our troops from Iraq within two years and redeploy many in Afghanistan, but that would still be a far cry from the 400,000 troops the outgoing commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan thinks are really needed. (Bye-bye, Iraq quagmire, hello, Afghanistan quagmire!) At worst, we'll need to maintain a massive troop presence in two countries at once (All Quagmire, All the Time).

And no U.S. military strategy will succeed if it's not accompanied by a regional political and diplomatic strategy: Stabilizing Afghanistan is inextricably linked to diffusing Pakistan's political crises as well. Doing this adequately will take resources and patient, sustained attention.

But don't mourn: organize! Start stockpiling that Ritalin now, folks: Whoever's in the White House next January is really going to need it.

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rbrooks@latimescolumnists.com