Is growth over?

Such steps alone will probably not make enough of a difference to avert a water-supply crisis. There is a finite amount of water available in Southern California, and it has not increased since 1990. The MWD annually imports 2.1 million gallons of water to the region. Without a plan of action by state and local governments, coupled with across-the-board changes in how we consume, major sectors of the state's economy such as agriculture and real estate development will soon face previously unimagined restrictions.

Meanwhile, environmental groups such as the California Water Impact Network are contending that many of our water-use practices violate the state's constitutional mandate that water be put to beneficial use to the maximum possible extent and that waste or unreasonable use be prevented. They particularly object to pumping water from the San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta to irrigate thirsty crops like cotton and alfalfa, as well as lawns. These environmentalists plan to petition the state Department of Water Resources to permanently reduce Delta pumping. If state officials or the courts agree, it would affect virtually every aspect of water use.

Real estate development already is feeling the pinch. State laws that took effect six years ago require water agencies to document sufficient long-term water supplies to support large developments. If they can't, they must block the developments, and these agencies are increasingly doing just that. The Eastern Municipal Water District, the largest water agency in Riverside County, recently delayed approval of a huge industrial development because it couldn't guarantee water supplies to the facility. The agency also indicated that it may withhold certifications of water availability for other projects if conditions do not improve.

Courts are increasingly weighing in on the issue. Last year, the state Supreme Court overturned approval of a major new planned community in the Sacramento area because the project's environmental impact report did not adequately address long-term water supplies. Earlier this year, a court in Riverside County reversed the go-ahead for a large residential project in Banning, in part on similar grounds. All told, dozens of planned developments throughout Southern California already have been delayed or abandoned because of uncertainty about long-term water supplies. And that number will soar once the recession in real estate eases.