Do the math, Republicans
The rise of independent voters in California means a boost for GOP moderates.
The lesson of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger may be finally taking hold in the Republican Party: If the GOP wants to win a statewide election, it has to nominate a moderate.
It's simple math -- far simpler than anything an eighth-grader grapples with in Algebra I.
More than 3.1 million Californians -- about 20% of all registered voters -- choose not to be a member of a political party. And the number of decline-to-staters, as they're called, is growing -- particularly among younger and first-time voters. About 40% of these independent voters say they're moderates, with the other 60% split liberal and conservative, according to a January poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.
So here's the equation. At best, a traditional conservative GOP candidate for governor gets California's registered Republican voters -- 32.53% of the electorate -- and perhaps the "conservative" one-third of the independents.
A Democrat snags all the Democrats -- 43.75% of the electorate -- and potentially the liberal third of the decline-to-states.
That means the ballgame (at least after the primary) is the middle-ground independents. This mathematical equation isn't lost on GOP statewide wannabes.
Tom Campbell is a Republican who could become California's governor in 2010. A moderate former congressman from Silicon Valley, he recently formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.
Campbell's worldview is close to that of Schwarzenegger. Campbell, who served as Schwarzenegger's top budget advisor in 2005, wants to be the man in the middle because he's seen it work for his old boss.
Steve Poizner, California's insurance commissioner and the only Republican currently holding statewide office other than the governor, has done the math. The Silicon Valley Republican, a multimillionaire, hasn't officially declared. But he's working the hustings, giving here's-why-you-should-dig-me speeches in which the only mention of insurance is his job title.
Poizner says he is a fiscal conservative who thinks government should stay out of people's private lives. He's pro-choice, as is Campbell.
Meg Whitman has done the math too. The former EBay executive is talked up as another GOP contender and appears cut from the same moderate cloth as Campbell and Poizner.
