Holy Land awaits

JERUSALEM — To: Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain

From: The Holy Land

Re: Well, it's complicated. . .

So you're competing to become the umpteenth American president burdened by the conflict over this hallowed patch of ground.

Like nearly every other candidate in recent decades, you make a pilgrimage here to show voters back home how much you care about peace and Israel's security. Sen. McCain, your spring visit to Sderot, that rocket-battered Israeli town, was a striking gesture.

This week, Sen. Obama, the Holy Land awaits you. Israelis and Palestinians. Skeptical eyes and ears, tuned to every gesture and word. A verbal minefield for even the most adept campaigner.

You'll get a helicopter tour, a feel for the intimacy of the land in dispute: Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip crowd a space smaller than Maryland between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.

Yet the conflict here is but one element, if indeed the centerpiece, of a wider regional crisis. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon all impinge, in ways that make Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking more complicated than ever.

Here are 10 realities to keep in mind about the Holy Land, previous American efforts to pacify it, and the broader conundrum and choices one of you will face when President Bush leaves office six months from now:

1 It could be worse. At least some of the players are talking about peace.

President Bush took office amid a Palestinian uprising, just after Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace talks had collapsed. The transition to your administration might not be as rough, thanks to a tentative cooling of the regional climate.

Over the last eight months, Israel has revived both sets of talks: with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (directly, brokered by the United States) and with Syria (indirectly, through Turkey). Israel has reached an Egyptian-mediated cease-fire with the militant group Hamas, which rules Gaza; swapped prisoners with Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon; and offered to trade a piece of land for peace with Lebanon. Most Arab nations are poised to recognize an Israel at peace with the Palestinians. None of these initiatives will come close to delivering peace before Bush leaves office, but they're less likely to break down this time. Your administration will have an opportunity to push them forward.

2 The conflicts Israel faces have become maddeningly intertwined.