Some conservative strategists believe that ostensibly liberal measures to legalize stem cell research in Michigan and to permit assisted suicide in Washington state ultimately will also work to the Republicans' advantage -- again by drawing to the polls social conservatives who wouldn't necessarily turn out just to support McCain.
To a large extent, Republicans are being encouraged to rely on this sort of state-by-state strategy because they see the election shaping up as less a contest between Obama and McCain and more as a kind of referendum on the presumptive Democratic nominee, his character and fitness for office. If they're right, Obama would face a larger-than-expected number of voters likely to take a skeptical view of his credentials.
Ballot propositions involving hot-button social issues not only are likely to turn out evangelical voters in large numbers, they may force Obama to take specific positions on the issues as he campaigns across the country. If he's forced to declare himself on when life begins or on assisted suicide, he risks alienating either the left wing of his own party or the faith-formed voters his campaign has spent so much time courting.
Still, a couple of this election season's strongest trends are working in Obama's favor. One is the overwhelming support the Illinois senator enjoys among one of the electorate's most important emerging constituencies -- Latinos. According to a nationwide survey conducted this week by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, registered Latino voters favor Obama over McCain 66% to 23%. Like other registered voters, Latinos are far more worried about economic issues than they are about immigration reform or the war in Iraq. Latinos are a particularly strong voting group in California, Florida and Colorado, and also in New Mexico and Nevada, states regarded as "in play."
At the same time, surveys of all voters find that economic anxieties are also strong among this election's other emergent (and pro-Obama) constituency: voters under 30.
So, in key states across the country, this election may come down to a contest between the economic voters' dissatisfaction and the values voters' old-time political religion.
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timothy.rutten@latimes.com
