Before the government began implementing the use of local data systems in 2005 to better track people's recourse to shelters, such as when and how frequently they use services, the best big-picture count of the homeless came from the "point-in-time" estimates based on volunteers and field workers fanning out in a specific area, armed with notepads.
These snapshots, which measure how many people are homeless over one night, are still collected. But they do not provide the best estimate, say HUD officials and homeless advocates, since people go in and out of homelessness.
Even the new data systems -- called "homeless management information systems"-- can't account for those who don't want to be counted. They track only those who use shelters, though officials think that, over the course of a year, most homeless people -- even those who largely "go it alone" -- will need such services.
"People's methods for doing these estimates are improving," said Dennis Culhane, a University of Pennsylvania social scientist who helped analyze the report's data. "Some of the count is real; some of it is better counting methods."
In California, the decline in the number of chronically homeless from 2005 to 2007 was nearly 33%, according to the report. The statewide drop in the total homeless population was about 15%.
According to the report, the chronically homeless population in what HUD calls the Los Angeles city and county "continuum of care" -- which excludes Glendale, Long Beach and Pasadena but includes the rest of the county -- has decreased by more than 35% over two years, from nearly 34,900 to about 22,400. The total number of homeless decreased from about 83,300 to about 68,600, the report found.
"It's quite true that not every single homeless person has been counted in this study," said Nan Roman, president of the National Alliance to End Homelessness. "It's not perfect. But the most important thing is it's trending downward. It's encouraging that even with high housing prices, high fuel prices, high food prices, we could still make this kind of progress in the system."
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vimal.patel@latimes.com
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33%
Decline in the number of chronically homeless in California from 2005 to 2007
15%
Drop in the state's total homeless population
35%
Drop in chronically homeless population in Los Angeles County (excluding Glendale, Long Beach and Pasadena)
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Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
