From 2003 to 2005, as the housing market gathered steam, 80,000 people were migrating inland from the coast annually, and retailers were hot on their heels, Husing said.
Last year, as real estate turned, the migration slowed to 35,000. Many new buyers were forced to abandon their homes because they couldn't afford the payments.
"Retail doesn't recover until housing recovers, and housing isn't going to recover until you cut off the flow of foreclosures," Husing said. "And when is that going to recover? Nobody knows for sure."
With higher vacancy rates, mall owners are forced to keep rents low and may even be unwilling to boot a tenant who falls behind on payments. That's because a shuttered store, particularly an anchor, casts a pall over a center, experts say.
And the current retrenchment in retail means it's tougher to find a new renter.
"Now it's particularly bad because of the paucity of potential tenants to fill that space," said Sam Chandon, chief economist for Reis. "It's harder to fill the space when they're going dark."
Stoffel declined to speculate on which Mervyns stores might close. But he said he had reviewed sales figures at Mervyns locations as part of the analysis he conducts on shopping centers.
"There's a couple that I looked at and shuddered," he said.
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leslie.earnest@latimes.com
