The next campaign is ready to begin in earnest

If Barack Obama clinches the Democratic presidential nomination today, it will be short on suspense. Instead, it will be almost as if a marathoner leading since the 18th mile finally crosses the finish line after more than 26 miles -- only to have to start another marathon.

The new race, in fact, already has begun as Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, have been campaigning in Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota and other battleground states that will have a significant say in who becomes the 44th president of the United States.

All presidential campaigns are historic, but the nature of this one has redefined the scale, with a white woman and a biracial man the last two serious contenders for a major party nomination in a Democratic primary battle that included five months of balloting, burned through $400 million and shattered state voter-turnout records for primary elections and caucuses.

The general election is likely to be just as dramatic, pitting not just differing ideologies against each other but two generations of voters as well -- those who came of age during the Vietnam War versus those shaped by the Iraq wars.

We already know who the pivotal voters are likely to be: The white working class, Latinos, and independent and moderate Democratic women frustrated that their dream of historic achievement was derailed by the dreams of others.

The question is, can Obama sell his vision of hope and change to the political middle? Despite the optimism of his supporters, Obama is still a work in progress as a national politician, with some clear vulnerabilities.

The fiery words of Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, still echo far outside the walls of the Chicago church Obama recently quit. His freshman term in the U.S. Senate has been light on legislative accomplishments, keeping alive criticism that he doesn't have the experience to lead.

And while the campaign has been savvy in burnishing its "new politics" image by using the Internet to raise record donations and enabling grass-roots supporters to organize, the centralized message-control from Obama's Chicago headquarters -- combined with top advisors coming in from the "old politics" world -- will raise questions about how fresh a wind the campaign will be.