The price of 'protecting' marriage

The most recent public opinion surveys hardly suggest a groundswell of support for the amendment. A Los Angeles Times/KTLA poll taken in the two days following the Supreme Court's decision found 54% of registered voters opposed same-sex marriage, while only 35% supported it. However, a Field Poll conducted over two weeks and with a larger sample found that 54% of the respondents opposed banning same-sex marriage, while 40% supported such a prohibition.

Susan Pinkus, who directs The Times' survey, thinks the discrepancy between the two polls can be explained by the fact that the Field respondents had more time to weigh the arguments pro and con and to consider their response. She says both polls reflect a "fluid climate of public opinion" in which "there's a continual softening of opposition to gay marriage." Even The Times' survey found that 54% of Californians do not believe that same-sex relationships involve a moral issue; half believe that legal recognition of same-sex marriage is "inevitable."

That may be true. The Field poll found that 68% of voters aged 18 to 29 approve of same-sex marriage. The Times/KTLA survey also found that support for same-sex unions increases with education. If Barack Obama is on the presidential ballot in November, younger, well-educated voters are expected to turn out for him in unprecedented numbers, which could be decisive in the marriage amendment vote.

The one place The Times' survey found overwhelming opposition to same-sex marriage is among evangelical Protestants, 83% of whom said they support a constitutional ban. That makes Ahmanson's and Atsinger's backing understandable, as well as the fact that the list of supporters on the amendment's website looks like a who's who of California's evangelical religious right. But notice that the Catholic bishops, Orthodox rabbis and Islamic imams -- who also hold traditional religious views -- are nowhere in sight.

The supporters listed also include all but one of California's Republican state senators and more than half of GOP Assembly members. That's where those unexpected consequences come in. In 1994, California Republicans thought they had a winning issue with Proposition 187, which would have denied all social services -- including healthcare and education -- to illegal immigrants. Gov. Pete Wilson was one of its leading advocates.

Proposition 187 easily passed, but it ultimately was overturned by a federal court. Since then, only one Republican candidate has won a statewide election for president, governor or U.S. senator in California. That lone GOP exception is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, which may be why he categorically opposes the Marriage Protection Amendment.

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timothy.rutten@latimes.com