California Democrats hope a surge in party registration this year, triggered by the intense interest in February's presidential primary, will help the party hold onto one vulnerable seat and capture long-shot victories in a handful of other congressional races this November.
One of the fiercest contests in the nation could be in Northern California's 11th District, where Republicans have targeted freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney. In 2006, the bookish wind engineer from Pleasanton took down GOP giant Richard W. Pombo, the then-powerful chairman of the House Resources Committee who came under a searing attack by environmental groups for his attempts to dismantle the Endangered Species Act.
McNerney is being challenged by former Republican state Assemblyman Dean Andal of Stockton, and the race is expected to be as nasty as it is expensive.
Already, the national parties have launched websites thrashing their rivals and have made it a magnet for partisan fundraising efforts. Both candidates ran unopposed in the primary.
Even the Democratic registration surge is not expected to help in GOP strongholds, including the 4th District near Sacramento where conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock easily defeated his moderate Republican rival, former U.S. Rep. Doug Ose of Sacramento, in Tuesday's primary.
But it could come into play in more contested areas, particularly if the expected nominees, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain, are able to lure wild card voters -- including independents and young voters -- to the polls. The McNerney seat is a prime example.
"That will be by far the hottest race, and it could be determined by the top of the ticket," said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP strategist who runs the Target Book, a nonpartisan compendium of political races in California.
California's Democratic presidential primary, which Obama lost to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, translated into a jump in Democratic registration: Democrats added more than 300,000 voters to the rolls between late January and mid-May, compared with just under 15,000 for the Republicans.
"Because of the intensity of the primary campaign, 93% of all new registered voters between January and April were Democrats," said Art Torres, the state Democratic party chief. "That's going to have an impact everywhere."
