A Gallup Poll released last week said that 57% of Americans approved drilling offshore and in wilderness areas. The results were highly partisan: Republicans backed drilling by an 80% to 18% margin, while Democrats opposed it, 59% to 39%. Independents, a target of both McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, approved of drilling by a 56% to 43% margin.
It is the last group whose reactions to McCain's switch will be key. In California, independents have consistently sided with Democrats against drilling. Kieran Mahoney, a Republican consultant in New York, pointed to a recent poll in Florida showing support there for offshore drilling.
"The wings have been where they have always been," he said, referring to emphatic Democrats and Republicans. "I'm persuaded that the center of the country has moved on this."
In the past, the debate pitted environmentalists against the oil companies -- hardly a fair fight, even in the best of times. But with gas prices spiking, Mahoney said, the mood has changed.
"People are appreciating the feeling of scarcity and the fact of scarcity," he said.
McCain's argument to independents will be that he feels the economic plight of voters and is willing to take steps necessary to lower gas prices -- even if his own advisors have acknowledged that offshore drilling would have only a minimal and distant impact.
"What McCain is trying to do, maybe not so much in California but in the other states, is to appeal to moderate voters that he understands their pain," said Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California and a longtime opinion pollster. "He's trying to create the perception that maybe Obama is not so concerned about the financial circumstances right now of average people."
In Santa Barbara, City Councilman Das Williams was sharply critical of McCain.
"What we are seeing is just a shameless amount of opportunism from Mr. McCain on this," he said. "I am somebody who had a lot of respect for him before he ran for president. He is pounding on this because of how much people are hurting."
Voters' views, meanwhile, were mixed even among Republicans. Dollie Speights, a Republican real estate investor, said McCain's change was "a good thing."
"The technology they have now is so amazing that they leave very little footprint."
But another Republican, Pat Bishop, called McCain's stance a mistake. "I don't want any more of those ugly derricks out there," she said.
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cathleen.decker@latimes.com
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michael.finnegan @latimes.com
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Times staff writer Maeve Reston in Santa Barbara and Fresno contributed to this report.
