"They will say the election wasn't free and fair, that the election was stolen," one official said in an interview, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We think they will intensify international sanctions and maybe look for a chance to intervene militarily."
Tsvangirai's move undercuts the chances of the ruling party forming a government of national unity dominated by ZANU-PF but with some MDC representation. Several ruling party officials said that such a government would help it regain international legitimacy and the foreign investment desperately needed to kick- start Zimbabwe's collapsed economy. Jonathan Moyo, an independent member of parliament and Mugabe's former right-hand man, said the president had "survived by the skin of his teeth." But he said that even if Mugabe were declared the default winner, he still would have to accept a government of national unity, because the ruling party lacks a parliamentary majority and the country is in economic chaos.
Moyo said that Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the election probably would mean that he would be given no role in such a government. But he speculated that the ruling party would do its best to entice other opposition parliament members to join a unity government, offering salaries and cars.
"I think in the final analysis the majority will go for the patronage of the state," he said.
Tsvangirai is obliged to inform the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission in writing that he is withdrawing from the runoff. Ruling party officials said that if that happened the commission probably would declare Mugabe the winner, canceling the second round.
But until there is a formal announcement, the party is planning to press ahead with campaigning and the commission has said the vote still will be held Friday.
There were growing signs Monday that ZANU-PF commanders cannot fully control the unruly youth militias who have been beating opposition supporters. The ruling party is unable to feed all the youths deployed at about 900 makeshift bases in schools and kindergartens around the country.
A ZANU-PF base commander said in an interview Monday in Harare that there was a base for youth militias in every electoral ward.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the youths had been given too much power by the Youth Ministry, which promised them immunity for their actions during the election campaign.
In a district outside Harare, ZANU-PF youths looted a market Monday, taking food and other merchandise.
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Times staff writer Maggie Farley at the U.N. contributed to this report.
