McCain bets on the road less traveled

But that strategy has provoked consternation and confusion among some fellow Republicans. There is, after all, the cautionary lesson of 1992, when President George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid. One big reason was that voters believed Bush -- who was partial to foreign policy -- was less attuned to their pocketbook pain than was his more domestic-minded opponent, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

That campaign, not incidentally, was the last time the economy played such a large role in a presidential election. In a worrisome sign for McCain, surveys show that economic issues again top the political agenda, with most voters saying Obama would do a better job addressing healthcare, record gas prices, even taxes -- usually a GOP strong suit -- than McCain.

Part of Obama's advantage may be Democrats' image as the more compassionate party. Some of it may be McCain's clumsiness (or honesty); during the primary season he confessed to being less conversant on economic issues than on defense and national security matters, words that Democrats have gleefully thrown back at him. The biggest part may be guilt by association; many blame the current President Bush for the tough economic times and assume that McCain will continue his policies, with the same results, for another four years.

Whatever the reason, those underlying attitudes make it all the more imperative for McCain to shift the debate over the next four months of campaigning. "If people are voting on economics, they're going to vote Democratic," said Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan pollster in Colorado, a state both candidates are targeting. "To win, Republicans have to focus this election on national security."

It is unclear, however, whether that issue -- which helped keep the GOP in the White House for the better part of 28 years -- still plays as strongly to the party's benefit.

When top McCain advisor Charlie Black recently said, after a reporter raised the issue, that a terrorist attack on the United States would be "a big advantage" for the Arizona senator, the reaction was swift: McCain disavowed the sentiment. Black apologized. Democrats howled with outrage.

But was Black correct? There is no way to know unless an attack occurs. The location, the perpetrators and, most especially, the timing would all be critical elements in determining the political consequences. But even the short-term response, a likely rallying around the president and the incumbent party, may not last.