Some analysts believe the Bush administration could push harder for a peace deal. Jim Kingsdale, a Colorado energy investor and analyst, said the Nigerian standoff called for "adult supervision" and warned last week that it could lead to still higher prices in coming years.
Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua won favor with U.S. officials after his election last year by signaling that he would seek an economic plan as part of a peace deal. But there has been little progress.
Meanwhile, the Niger Delta militias have become increasingly confident.
For most of the last three years, they have used a network of creeks and swamps to prey on onshore pipelines and other facilities. In response, the companies shut down some onshore sites, expanding offshore capacity and massing private security around their installations.
The offshore speedboat raid this month raised new questions about security in the region. Still, J. Anthony Holmes, a former U.S. diplomat who held several posts in Africa, said a military response that included non-Nigerian forces would be deeply unpopular. And U.S. influence is limited by Chinese and Russian interest in the Nigerian market.
"The fact is," Holmes said, "we just don't have a lot of leverage."
--
paul.richter@latimes.com
