Don't count on Schmidt

He's the first person everyone wants to see upon the arrival of the Dodgers' season.

He's the first person in every Dodgers prediction, every Dodgers hype, every Dodgers hope.

But where is he?

It's the middle of a spring training game and he's not on the field. He's not in the bullpen. He's not on some back mound.

A vast search ends in the middle of an otherwise empty clubhouse, where Jason Schmidt sits with a soft smile and a shaking head.

So, how's your shoulder?

"That's a trick question," he says.

That, I think, is a scary answer.

Jason Schmidt is not going to be ready for opening day.

"No, he's not," says Dodgers Manager Joe Torre.

Jason Schmidt might not be at full speed until the middle of the summer.

"Man, I hope it's before then," he says.

Contrary to what many fans believed after a slew of glowing rehabilitation reports, Jason Schmidt currently cannot be counted on as part of the Dodgers' rotation.

Which could make the Dodgers' season a trick question.

Can a team survive in the pitching-rich National League West with only two proven starting pitchers? Outside of Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, are there really any certainties?

Chad Billingsley is a potential superstar, but does that happen this soon, after 36 career starts?

Hiroki Kuroda is a plow horse, but he's also 33 with an earned-run average that rose two full points last summer in Japan.

Then there's the fifth starter spot, up for grabs but currently occupied by Esteban Loaiza, whose 8.34 ERA as a Dodger last year makes it a very scary spot indeed.

Torre says he is happy with the first four starters, even without Schmidt.

"I think it's a pretty solid group; not too many clubs have four like that," he says.

But championship clubs do.

And Torre is worried about something else.

"You know," he says, "we don't have any left-handers in there."

Unless they jam Hong-Chih Kuo and his 7.42 ERA into the rotation, they could be a team without a lefty starter, which is a team unfamiliar to Torre and recent World Series championships.

In his 12 seasons as manager of the New York Yankees, Torre's teams averaged 56 starts by left-handers.

Since the Dodgers last won a playoff series in 1988, the 19 World Series championship teams have averaged 48 starts by left-handers.