The only sure bet: A senator will win

Can Arnold aid McCain?

Half the fun of politics-watching is politics-speculating, and John Mercurio at the National Journal mused recently on what John McCain might gain by making an early play for Arnold Schwarzenegger as a member of his Cabinet.

In a word, California.

Republican presidential contenders have won California before, and with the right play -- to the middle, primarily -- they could win again. How do you make that play? You start by signing up the guv, who's won the state twice. Imagine the "Terminator" as secretary of Homeland Security. Or the "Kindergarten Cop" in charge of Education.

And if McCain did win California, the 55 electoral votes the Democrats usually count on would suddenly be in the "red" column -- a potentially watershed change in the electoral map (though one suspects Hollywood would start a secessionist movement, with Rob Reiner holding the flag).

One argument against Schwarzenegger heading to Washington: It's a longer commute to his home in Brentwood than from Sacramento.

Are we 'post-racial'?

Mort Kondracke, writing for the Capitol Hill-centric publication Roll Call, went where most other commentators have shied from -- the role of race in Barack Obama's Tuesday losses, especially in Ohio.

Kondracke makes a persuasive case that Obama's effort to run as a " 'post-racial' candidate -- the political equivalent of Tiger Woods" -- has had only limited success.

Actually, Kondracke fleshes out his argument by relying on elections analyst Jay Cost.

Cost, Kondracke says, "has developed a convincing theory about the Democratic racial factor: Obama wins in states with majority-black Democratic turnout, like South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana, and in states with few blacks, like Wisconsin, Washington and Vermont.

"He also has won in states with mixed populations where white family income is high, such as Maryland and Virginia."

But he notes that Cost contends it is Clinton who has won in states where blacks constitute a major minority but where average white income is lower.

"So in largely white Wisconsin, Obama carried white males by a margin of 63% to 34%. But in Ohio, Clinton won, 58% to 39%," Kondracke writes.

This does not bode well for Obama April 22 in Pennsylvania, which is much more like Ohio than Wisconsin.

Now, about Ohio . . .

Hillary Clinton's exuberance about Ohio is perfectly understandable; her convincing win there Tuesday put her back on her feet in the hunt for the Democratic presidential nomination.