* The U.N.'s chief weapons inspector was unreliable. (Hans Blix "couldn't find the stretch marks on Rosie O'Donnell": Laura Ingraham, syndicated radio host.)
* Torture is justifiable. ("Reasonable people will disagree about when torture is justified": John C. Yoo, then-deputy assistant attorney general.)
* Abu Ghraib was not all that bad. (Abu Ghraib "is no different than what happens at the Skull and Bones initiation": Rush Limbaugh.)
* The U.S. won the war within weeks. ("The only people who think this wasn't a victory are Upper West Side liberals and a few people here in Washington": Charles Krauthammer, syndicated columnist.)
Although there were differences, the Great Consensus was bipartisan. Sen. John McCain (who said before the fact that "the Iraqi people will greet us as liberators") observed in September 2003 that "the next three to six months are critical."
Three months later, Sen. Hillary Clinton (who before the invasion had said that Hussein "will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons") insisted that "the next six to seven months are critical."
Barack Obama partisans may try to argue that the Illinois senator did not share in the consensus, but he lacked any foreign policy experience and therefore does not qualify as an expert and is excluded from our study.
Nevertheless, as scrupulous scholars, we concede that there was and is a small group of dissenters from the Great Consensus, but they are for the most part ordinary citizens or extreme left- (and far right-) wingers who don't really count. Besides, they would only pollute our sample.
Finally, although the institute expresses no opinion of its own on the matter, we feel it is incumbent on us to note apropos the "surge" that there is ample precedent for the "turning point" thesis mentioned above:
* July 7, 2003: "This month will be a political turning point for Iraq." (Douglas J. Feith, then-undersecretary for Defense.)
* June 16, 2004: "A turning point will come two weeks from today." (President Bush.)
* Feb. 2, 2005: "On Jan. 30 in Iraq, the world witnessed ... a moment that historians might one day call a turning point." (Donald Rumsfeld, then-U.S. secretary of Defense.)
* June 14, 2006: "I think -- tide turning -- see, as I remember -- I was raised in the desert, but tides kind of -- it's easy to see a tide turn -- did I say those words?" ( Bush.)
We trust that the above abstract of our findings will convince any reasonable person that our study was as rigorous, systematic and serious as were the experts themselves.
