Hoping to buy an emission-free vehicle in the next few years? Finding one might soon get much tougher.
California's Air Resources Board will vote today on whether to cut, by nearly two-thirds, the number of electric-battery and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles that major carmakers must sell here over the next decade.
The proposed change to the state's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate has stirred up protests from environmentalists and alternative-transportation advocates, who say automakers have little incentive to produce such vehicles unless obligated. Others say the state will be unable to meet its own greenhouse gas-reduction targets without requiring more production of emission-free vehicles. Passenger vehicles emit about 30% of California's greenhouse gases.
"This is a very significant reduction," said V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies in Sacramento. "We need to look at getting car companies to push more technology than they want to, sooner than they want to, not making concessions to industry."
Automakers argue that even the reduced mandate is too tough, considering the extremely high costs associated with developing new drivetrain technology. In a March 14 letter to the air board, the six largest automakers selling in California -- General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co., Chrysler, Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. -- expressed concerns that parts of the mandate were "overly stringent" and that the changes "place an inordinate burden upon the resources" of the companies.
The proposed revised mandate would require those carmakers to market 2,500 electric or fuel-cell vehicles here from 2012 to 2014, followed by 25,000 more from 2015 to 2017. (Smaller-volume carmakers are not required to make emission-free vehicles.)
Those numbers are far below the existing requirement, which calls for 25,000 such vehicles in the earlier period and 50,000 more between 2015 and 2017. (The mandate for 2009-2011, which isn't up for a vote, requires 2,500 emission-free vehicles.) According to the Air Resources Board, the reduced numbers would save automakers as much as $1.3 billion a year.
Board Chairwoman Mary Nichols said the panel would probably opt for an unspecified compromise on the number of vehicles and might consider a future overhaul of the program. She denied that automakers influenced the board's decision-making process. "This isn't about backing down under pressure from auto companies," Nichols said. "It's about what's feasible."
