Observers warned a year ago that the situation in the Shiite-majority south was deteriorating as anger mounted within the Mahdi Army over delays in holding provincial elections. Then, the senior coalition commander in the southern city of Diwaniya, Polish Maj. Gen. Pawel Lamla, said that an increase in Shiite militia violence could be traced to the power struggle.
"The Badr Organization and the government are a little afraid of the future elections," Lamla said. "Now they have the power, but who knows about the future?"
Many in the Mahdi Army had chafed under the cease-fire, believing that the Americans and Iraqi security officials, backed by the Badr Organization, continued to go after Sadr supporters who weren't involved in violence.
"The law has been taken advantage of by certain actors for political gain," said Liwa Sumaysim, head of Sadr's political bureau. "There is fear and anxiety that this is what is happening in Basra."
Fueling the Sadrists' concerns about Basra is the fact that some of Maliki's trusted security advisors are from the Badr camp. The head of the Basra security command, Gen. Mohan Freiji, is also considered loosely affiliated with the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, or SIIC, said a Western advisor at the Defense Ministry.
The offensive in Basra so far has targeted only Sadrist neighborhoods and has avoided going after the Al Fadila al Islamiya party of Basra Gov. Mohammed Waeli or the Badr Organization, both of which have elements that have contributed to the problems in the port city.
"How could the Sadrists interpret U.S. air support of the Basra operation other than as the manifestation of a U.S.- SIIC alliance?" asked Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East expert with the International Crisis Group think tank.
British officers have noted that the Fadila party is suspected of involvement in oil smuggling, one of the major security concerns in Basra. The Badr Organization has also been implicated in racketeering at ports and controlling the city's police intelligence service, according to the International Crisis Group. Without tackling Fadila and Badr's lawless elements, Basra's problems are likely to continue.
The current violence also jeopardizes the Americans' detente with Sadr loyalists around the country. After the cleric's cease-fire in August, U.S. officers in Baghdad cut deals with moderate elements of the Mahdi Army to stabilize the capital's western neighborhoods. Officers were even given lists of Mahdi Army fighters they could not arrest.
Now, the same Shiite militiamen are battling U.S. forces again.
Abu Ali, a member of the Sadr movement in the capital's New Baghdad area, had been helping enforce Sadr's cease-fire, but said his local office had returned to planting homemade bombs in case U.S. soldiers dared to enter their area.
"We have called for jihad," Abu Ali said. "The government came with the occupier and supports the occupiers and they know the Americans will protect them. We are fighting to get our rights."
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ned.parker@latimes.com
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Times staff writers Saif Rasheed, Mohammed Rasheed and Said Rifai contributed to this report.
