JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA — Zimbabwe's ruling party was in turmoil Wednesday, debating its next step amid reports that final results would show President Robert Mugabe had failed to win reelection and faced another round of balloting.
But the results also posed a dilemma for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who, according to the results, did not win an outright victory. He has repeatedly ruled out a second round, maintaining that he won the first, but could hand victory to Mugabe if he doesn't run again.
According to final results reached by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, which are still subject to a verification process in coming days, Tsvangirai received 47% of the vote to Mugabe's 43% in the March 29 election, with other candidates taking the rest of the ballots. Zimbabwean law requires that a candidate win 50% of the ballots plus one to avoid a runoff.
The results were provided by sources in Mugabe's ZANU-PF party, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisals for leaking information to a foreign journalist.
Many ruling party figures now doubt Mugabe, who at 84 presides over a collapsing economy and an annual inflation rate of more than 165,000%, can win a second round, despite a campaign of violence by his followers against opposition activists.
But the opposition faces an obvious disadvantage in a second round after its activists were forced to flee violence in rural areas, ruling out a proper campaign in those places.
Tsvangirai also has suggested that his safety could be at risk if he returns to Zimbabwe from neighboring South Africa, where he is now.
U.S. and British officials also have raised concerns that violence in recent weeks against opposition activists and supporters has made holding a second round too difficult and dangerous.
Nonetheless, ruling party figures were morose Wednesday after the news that a recount failed to show any improvement in Mugabe's tally from earlier unofficial figures. Many of them had hoped that the long delay in releasing presidential results might be a sign that Mugabe would do better in the final tally.
Over the weekend, the electoral commission announced that a recount had confirmed that Mugabe's party had lost control of parliament for the first time since Zimbabwe won independence from Britain in 1980.
